Friday, November 11, 2016

What next for detroit tigers?

Tigers GM Al Avila has said that he wants to stay competitive and go younger and leaner. The Cameron Maybin trade tells us that this time; the talk is not a bluff for the other teams. The Tigers are embarking on a change that has been discussed for years, but has never been done.They will not be active in free Agency.That means they will have to get whatever help they can from the trades that Avila is planning. They cannot go for super prospects who are years away from contention. They will have to get players who will be ready for next season and give them a proper chance to see what they can do. The current lineup is too rightly heavy. Given the depth chart below, the only gaps as of now are:
  1. A bench player who is a big threat on the bases.
  2. A left hitting catcher




The high earning players are classified as per their necessity to contention next year.

Vital

Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmerman and Ian Kinsler, are irreplaceable because:
  1.  There is no prospect available who can replace them now
  2.  There is no one in other teams who can be had in a trade

Trade only for Salary

Miguel Cabrera and Anibal Sanchez: No one will touch Anibal Sanchez with his contract. However, there are some hard hitters in the team to package with Anibal Snachez. One possible trade is Anibal Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera to marlins for Martin Prado. Sanchez will have more value being plugged in rotation, long relief or as a closer.
Prado can man 3rd base moving Castellanos to first base.
J D Martinez to Astros and in return, get Michael Feliz, or Lance McCullers, if they are lucky.

Expendable

This is the Money Detroit Tigers should save. This is the group that is replaceable.
Pos'n
ML Srv
Agent
Length / Total Value
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Upton, Justin
lf
9.06
Reynolds Sports
6 yr/132.75M (16-21)
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000
 FA
Martinez, Victor
dh
13.114
Octagon
4 yr/68M (15-18)
$ 18,000,000
$ 18,000,000
 FA
Pelfrey, Mike
rhp-s
9.122
Boras Corp.
2 yr/16M (16-17)
$ 8,000,000
 FA
Rodriguez, Francisco
rhp-c
13.115
Boras Corp.
2 yr/13M (15-16)+17 opt
$ 6,000,000
Lowe, Mark
rhp
8.159
Frye McCann
2 yr/11M (16-17)
$ 5,500,000
 FA
Total
59,625,000
40,125,000
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000
$ 22,125,000

Victor Martinez: Boston needs a new designated hitter. V-Mart is a switch hitter, and has adjusted to DH duties. Boston’s line-up leans heavily to RHs (Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley, Pedroia). V-Mart has in-clubhouse presence, and only one year left on his contract. Brian Johnson is an option for back of the Rotation or a spot starter in the worst case.
As for the rest, given that Cameron Maybin fetched just a fringe pitching prospect with control issues, Detroit should focus on packaging them for one or two position prospects projects. I will describe further
Justin Upton: His $132.75 million contract would be off the books. In hindsight, signing this guy to a six-year contract was a bad idea. His great second half might convince another team to take a chance on him.

Lineup without the disposables (Against Lefties)

Ian Kinsler
Jose Iglesias
Miguel Cabrera
J.D. Martinez
Steven Moya
Nick Castellanos
Andrew Romine
James McCann
Anthony Gose

Lineup without the disposables (Against Righties)

Ian Kinsler
Anthony Gose
Miguel Cabrera
J.D. Martinez
Tyler Collins
Jose Iglesias
Nick Castellanos
Steven Moya
New Catcher

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Matt Boyd*
Jordan Zimmermann
Daniel Norris*
Michael Fulmer
Anibal Sanchez
Brian Johnson*

Bullpen
Closer position must be rotating till someone runs with it
Bruce Rondon
Kyle Ryan*
Alex Wilson
Shane Greene
Justin Wilson*
Blaine Hardy*
Buck Farmer
Drew VerHagen
Relif pitchers traded in

Even with minimal batting expectations from the new lefty catcher, this is a great lineup provided the new lefty catcher is a defensive gem. 

Now assuming we trade the second group out. It leaves a lot of holes that have to be filled by players brought in.

Lineup with only Vital players (Against Lefties)

Ian Kinsler
Jose Iglesias
Martin Prado
Steven Moya
Nick Castellanos
Andrew Romine
James McCann
Anthony Gose
Tyler Collins

Lineup with only Vital players (Against Righties)

Alex Presley

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Matt Boyd*
Jordan Zimmermann
Daniel Norris*
Michael Fulmer
Brian Johnson


Bullpen
Closer position must be rotating till someone runs with it
Bruce Rondon
Kyle Ryan*
Alex Wilson
Michael Feliz,
Shane Greene
Justin Wilson*
Blaine Hardy*
Buck Farmer
Drew VerHagen
Relief pitchers traded in

In this situation, the team is giving up hitting for pitching and salary relief. The situation is shown by the fact that Tigers need to bring in a 3-hole batter. Kinsler can be moved to third with Martin Prado batting behind him. Gose or Iglesias can then bat leadoff. More than skill, the new players need some support and time to gain confidence and experience to be dependable in the high pressure spots.

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