Wednesday, November 02, 2016

The True bell-weather of US Presidential elections

I sometimes felt as if I were watching the psychodrama of the baby boom generation — a tale rooted in old grudges and revenge plots hatched on a handful of college campuses long ago — played out on the national stage.


-The Audacity of Hope

Next week, after being out of power for eight years, the baby Boomer generation will come roaring back and put a president from their cohort in Power. While millennial Republicans had Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to associate with, the millennial Democrats has only Grandpa Bernie Sanders and nostalgia. The two year drama will finally draw to a close next week and end my obsession with these elections. Obsessive preoccupation with polls is a ritual that propels laughable coverage of any elections.  Too many states in USA like to be called the Barometer of the presidential elections. States like Ohio make a fuss about their ability to correctly vote for the US president. There are even fraud analyses and articles which torture the data enough to show why their state is the true barometer.

But the true bell-weather state seems to be New Mexico with a 92% success rate. Startlingly, the seat of power Washington DC has no idea what the rest of nation wants. The Rates for Mississippi and Alabama Partly explain their backwardness.New York has the best record among the 13 founding states.


Full table for those interested below.data from Wikipedia. I have looked at all elections.
State Correct Elections Accuracy
New Mexico 24 26 92%
Illinois 41 49 84%
Ohio 44 53 83%
California 34 41 83%
New York 47 57 82%
Nevada 31 38 82%
Pennsylvania 46 57 81%
Arizona 20 26 77%
Wisconsin 32 42 76%
New Hampshire 43 57 75%
Minnesota 29 39 74%
Oregon 29 39 74%
Montana 23 31 74%
Indiana 37 50 74%
Iowa 31 42 74%
West Virginia 28 38 74%
Missouri 36 49 73%
Michigan 33 45 73%
Utah 22 30 73%
Florida 30 41 73%
New Jersey 41 57 72%
Colorado 25 35 71%
Rhode Island 40 56 71%
Idaho 22 31 71%
Washington 22 31 71%
Wyoming 22 31 71%
Oklahoma 19 27 70%
Connecticut 39 57 68%
Kansas 26 38 68%
North Dakota 21 31 68%
Maine 33 49 67%
North Carolina 37 55 67%
Virginia 37 55 67%
Maryland 38 57 67%
Massachusetts 38 57 67%
Tennessee 36 54 67%
Nebraska 24 37 65%
Hawaii 9 14 64%
Vermont 36 56 64%
Louisiana 32 50 64%
Delaware 36 57 63%
Kentucky 35 56 63%
Arkansas 26 44 59%
South Dakota 18 31 58%
Texas 23 40 58%
Alaska 8 14 57%
Georgia 32 56 57%
South Carolina 32 56 57%
Mississippi 24 47 51%
Alabama 24 48 50%
D.C. 6 13 46%

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